Island villa

Here is the perfect day to enter the Love Island villa if you want to do well

I am a woman in STEM.

Love Island season is upon us and 12 new contestants are on their way to the villa as we speak.

Any seasoned viewer will know, however, that this group of contestants is not the final Love Island lineup. Over the next few weeks, many more islanders will enter the villa in hopes of finding love. We’re talking bombshells, Casa Amor girls, and a few late entries to shake things up before the finale.

There seem to be pros and cons to entering the villa in different places. If you’re a beginner, you set the first impression and have a decent chance of forming that initial bond with the viewer. However, your airtime is shared with 11 others, and while you’re likely to stick around for a good chunk of the show, there’s no guarantee that either. Last year, for example, poor Shannon Singh got dumped on Day 2.

Then we have the bombs. Unlike newbies, these guys get all the attention when they arrive, allowing them to make a splash. Mind you, they can be presented as potentially threatening to existing relationships, and without that initial bond with Day 1 viewers, fans may choose to stick with early starters and show some hostility towards newcomers.

About halfway through the show, the boys fly out to Casa Amor, while a group of new boys walk in to get to know the girls. Like the bombshells, these people can receive hostility from fans. However, we can also encourage them if we feel they are more suitable for anyone in a rock coupling.

Finally, we have, which I classify as, the late bombs. These guys, in my opinion, get the end of the deal. They don’t have that loyalty that previous contestants have, and by the time they enter, there’s not much time to get grafted or earn fan votes.

But is there a perfect day to enter the villa to guarantee success? Well, that will depend on what you define as a successful stint on Love Island. With that in mind, I’ve identified three branches of Love Island’s success: winning, star power, and finding love.

Now full disclosure, I’m not really a woman in STEM. I’m actually pretty bad at math, and this research was done mostly on my phone’s calculator app, but to be honest, I think it’s pretty groundbreaking, and if MENSA cares to contact me, that would be cool.

1. Win

When we look at who has won the series so far, the majority are rookies. Here are the winners so far and the day they both entered:

  • Season 1 – Jess Hayes (Day 1) and Max Morley (Day 14)
  • Season 2 – Cara De La Hoyde (day 1) and Nathan Massey (day 1)
  • Season 3 – Amber Davies (day 1) and Kem Cetinay (day 1)
  • Season Four – Dani Dyer (Day 1) and Jack Fincham (Day 1)
  • Season Five – Amber Gill (Day 1) and Greg O’Shea (Day 44)
  • Season 6 – Paige Turley (Day 1) and Finn Tapp (Day 5)
  • Season Seven Millie Grace Court (Day 9) and Liam Reardon (Day 4)

Here we see that more day-oners won the show than those who entered later, but the average entry point for winners is technically day 6.

2. Star Power

One of the side effects of going to Love Island is newfound fame, influence, and Instagram followers, which no doubt sweetens the deal for contestants. The show has given some of today’s biggest influencers a huge career boost. For the purposes of this category, I’m using Instagram followers as an indication of their star power, and we’re looking at the 10 most followed Love Island alumni. They are:

  • Molly-Mae Hague (day 4, 6.3 million)
  • Tommy Fury (day 1, 4.1 million)
  • Maura Higgins (day 10, 3.4 million)
  • Dani Dyer (Day 1, 3.6 million)
  • Olivia Bowen (day 1, 2.9 million)
  • Amber Gill (day 1, 2.6 million)
  • Kem Cetinay (day 1, 2.5 million)
  • Dr. Alex George (day 1.2 million)
  • Millie Grace Court (day 9, 1.9 million)
  • Jack Fincham (day 1, 1.8 million).

We certainly see a strong correlation between entering on Day 1 and building up a large following. However, the fact that Molly-Mae outnumbers other alumni by more than 2 million must also count for something, even if she may just be an outlier. In any case, if we take the average of these figures, we get day 3, suggesting that those who enter early tend to do better when it comes to Instagram following accounts.

3. Find love

We must not forget that the whole premise of Love Island is to find your soul mate, so that must be taken into account in our analysis here. While the majority of couples who have met on the show have gone their separate ways, many are still together and some have even started families of their own. Also, for the purposes of this category, I’ve only included couples who reunited during their season, which is why Lucie Donlon and Luke Mabbott are excluded.

The relationships that have lasted are:

  • Mile Grace Court (day 9) and Liam Reardon (day 4)
  • Chloe Burrows (day 2) and Toby Aromolaran (day 1)
  • Faye Winter (day 1) and Teddy Soares (day 12)
  • Eva Zapico (day 23) and Nas Majeed (day 1)
  • Paige Turley (day 1) and Finn Tapp (day 5)
  • Molly Smith (day 23) and Callum Jones (day 1)
  • Molly-Mae Hague (day 4) and Tommy Fury (day 1)
  • Jess Shears (day 1) and Dom Lever (day 1)
  • Camilla Thurlow (day 1) and Jamie Jewitt (day 32)
  • Cara De La Hoyde (day 1) and Nathan Massey (day 1)
  • Olivia Bowen (day 1) and Alex Bowen (day 18)

Again, it would seem that those who entered the villa on day 1 seem to have a higher chance of finding lasting love, but when all of these numbers come together, the average best day to enter the villa if you have the heart set on finding love is the day day 8.2.

Conclusion

The only contestant to appear in all three categories is Millie Grace Court, who entered the villa like a first bomb on day 9, although several of them are present in two of the above events – Paige Turley (Day 1), Finn Tapp (Day 5), Cara De La Hoyde (Day 1), Nathan Massey (Day 1), Olivia Bowen ( day 1), Amber Gill (day 1) Kem Cetinay (day 1), Molly-Mae Hague (day 4) and Tommy Fury (day 1). If we use these numbers to come to a conclusion, then the best day to enter the villa is day 2.5.

Also, if we want to calculate the average of the 3 categories, we come to a bit later stage of the competition – day 15.2. However, when you compare this to mode, which is day 1my very thorough research would suggest that those who enter either on day 1 or as the first bomb have the best chance of success at Love Island.